The Dow - A Few More Months to Run

Before finishing my review of the FANG stocks, let's look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average since the financial press is hyperventilating at every new high the Dow reaches, with lots of hand wringing as to when it's going to end.  Midas Analysis should give us insight as to how far along the Dow is in this strong up market.

Let's apply our analysis to DIA, the etf following the Dow.  Checking out charts of several timeframes, I see that the weekly bars chart of DIA here shows a well developed accelerated uptrend in progress...

 

 The uptrend started a year ago and has spawned a four-fold hierarchy of Midas support curves, S1 thru S4.  The price trend is riding far above S1, so this is an accelerated uptrend.  Four is the most common number of support curves in an accelerated uptrend before it ends, sometimes three or five, so this trend is well along in its life.   

Fitting the TopFinder (TB-F) to this trend at the April '17 pullback needs D to be 900 million shares of cumulative volume since its start.  As of this writing, the cum vol is 753 million, so this trend is about 84% complete in terms of cum vol.  The horizontal axis is linear in cum vol, not time, which allows me to position that dashed vertical line at the 900 million shares position, which is where we expect the trend will end.  We don't know when it will end or at what price, but we will see that it has ended once we get there.  If you assume that average weekly trading volume will continue as it has for the last several months, then the end of the trend will come in about three months.  If trading volume increases significantly, the end will arrive sooner; conversely if trading slows down, the end will come later.