The MVPT is a refinement of the Volume Price Trend (VPT) indicator, which in turn is a refinement of Granville's On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator. Both refinements reduce the noise and volatility of the OBV and keep the indicator close to the price trace in times of "normal" trading while allowing the indicator to diverge from price during phases of accumulation or distribution. See my article, "Modified Price-Volume Trend Indicator" in the April 2010 issue of Stocks & Commodities magazine [Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, vol. 28 no. 5, p22].
Here's the daily bars chart of ONEQ for the last 12 months, price in black candles and the MVPT in purple...
You can see that MVPT is in a dramatic downward divergence from price starting in May of this year.
Similarly, here's the chart of QQQ...
Here the divergence is even more dramatic.
What does this mean? The usual interpretation is that the "smart" money is getting out of the stock even while the price continues to rise. Usually this foretells a coming drop in the price, but without knowing when that will happen. See my article for a full discussion of these behaviors.
I've looked at the ETFs following other market indexes. Some, such as the SPY, show modest distribution, but none as dramatic as these two.
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