Netflix - A Few More Months to Run

Two months ago I started a review of the four FANG stocks (see my Aug. 9 post here) since they have been the leaders of this huge bull market we're in.  I'm looking at each one, on several timeframes, to see if Midas analysis can tell us how close each is to the end of its uptrend.  The Aug. 9 post showed that AMZN's uptrend, on the very long term timeframe of a quarterly bars chart, has ended.  Now, let's look at Netflix (NFLX).

Both the monthly bars and the weekly bars charts of NFLX show that it has been in a highly accelerated uptrend since July of 2016.  Here's the weekly bars chart...

 A TopFinder, TB-F, fits nicely to this trend using the fitting parameter D =  3 billion shares of cumulative volume.  To date, the cum vol from the beginning of this trend is 2.407 billion shares, so this trend is 80.2 % complete in terms of cum vol.  

Remember, this is a candlevolume display chart, so the horizontal axis is linear in cum vol, not time.  This allows me to position that dashed vertical line at the horizontal location which is 3 billion shares of cum vol since the trend's start.  This is the location where we expect the trend will end.  

In MetaStock, the charting program I'm using here, in candlevolume display it makes invalid assumptions on how to label the dates on the horizontal axis that are in the future, so you should ignore them.  

This chart does not give a prediction of when this trend will end, rather, it identifies what the cum vol will be when it ends.  In other words, we'll know when we get there.  IF, and this is a very big if, the average weekly trading volume stays the same as it has been for the last half year or so, then we could identify a date in the future when cum vol will get to 3 billion.  Just put a ruler on the chart, measure the distance from the latest price bar to the dashed vertical line, then measure that same distance back in time and you'll end up at about mid June of this year.  So, IF average trading volume remains as it has been this year, then we can expect this trend to end in about four months.  If trading volume increases significantly going forward, this trend will end sooner; and conversely if trading volume slows, this trend will take longer to end.  

A TopFinder also fits nicely to the monthly bars chart (not shown here) and leads to the same conclusions as on this weekly bars chart.