Thursday, October 19, 2017

Google At or Near Its End

Now let's look at the last of the FANG stocks, Google (Alphabet, ticker GOOGL).  I found that the quarterly bars chart and the monthly bars chart each sports a well fit TopFinder that is at or near its end.  Here's the quarterly bars chart...

This strongly accelerated up trend started in early 2011 and is currently about 98% complete.  Due to typical end of trend volatility, we consider anything greater than 95% to be essentially complete.  So, on this timeframe, this up trend has ended.

Now here's the monthly bars chart...
In this chart, there's some question as to which pullback(s) to fit the TopFinder to.  In my experience, fitting to the latest pullback works best.  Doing that here also captures an earlier pullback.  These fitting points are indicated by the small arrows.  So, I think this is a good fit.  

This TopFinder is almost 95% done, and we consider anything above 95% to be essentially done.  At the current rate of monthly trading volume it would take 3 or 4 more months to get to exactly 100%.  

So, my conclusion for Google is that its long term up trend is either done now or will end sometime between now and 3 or 4 months from now, assuming average monthly trading volume stays as it has been for the last several months.

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This ends my review of the FANG stocks and the Dow.  If we can generalize from these five to the whole market, the current long term market up trend will end sometime within the next 3 to 4 months, sooner if trading volume significantly increases.





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