Update on AAPL, Intermediate Term

A few weeks ago, in my old now-deceased blog, I posted an analysis of the intermediate term view of Apple's stock (AAPL).  I showed that since its peak last September, it has been in an accelerating down trend, that price had broken below important support, that the head & shoulders pattern projected a downside target price of 313, and that the Midas BottomFinder (BF) projected that it was about two thirds complete in terms of cumulative volume.

This chart shown here (weekly bars) updates what has happened since that last post.





We see that price pulled up a bit in late March, hit the R3 resistance curve, and then turned down again.  That pull-up in price provides another potential place to which to fit the BF.  In my first post, the BF was fit to the pull-up of early December, marked by the upper arrow here.  In the chapter of our book on fitting the TopFinder/BottomFinder, I advise that when there are two significant pull backs in price, one should attempt to fit the TF/BF curve to both as long as the fit isn't too far off from either one.  In my original fit to the Dec. peak only, a duration D of 34 million shares of cumulative volume was needed.  Now I'm finding that a compromise fit to both of these peaks (the two arrows) requires a duration D of 38 million shares.  Doing so I see that the down trend is now 71.4% complete, and I have accordingly adjusted the projected horizontal location of the end of the downtrend.  Assuming that the average weekly trading volume rate continues as it has been, the first fit projected the end of the trend would come approximately in late May, but this new adjustment to the fit is now showing late June.  Of course, if the weekly trading volume changes significantly going forward, the end of the trend would come at a different date, whatever the date is on which the total D of 38 million shares of cumulative volume are fully expended.