S&P Short Term - In A Well Behaved, Maturing Uptrend

This is the daily bars chart of the S&P 500 since last October, updated thru yesterday.  I call this "short term" to differentiate it from that of the weekly bars or longer time frame chart.

This shows an uptrend that started mid last November.  I call it "well behaved" because each pullback in price - late December, mid February and just last week - has settled down to and turned right around at the then highest Midas support curve in its hierarchy of curves.  From last week's low we launch S4, the next curve in the hierarchy.  Yesterday price broke very strongly above the previous high of this uptrend, showing that this uptrend is alive and well and just chugging right along.

This is a classic, text book example of an uptrend being followed by a hierarchy of Midas support curves.  Typically, such an uptrend will spawn a hierarchy of four support curves, plus or minus one, before it ends; rarely more than five.

Since this uptrend is now into S4 of its hierarchy, it is likely late in its life, hence my calling it "mature". At the point after S4 starts, one should pay close attention to it, watching for a pullback that penetrates and closes below S4.  When that happens, that's the signal that the uptrend has ended.

Some may wonder why I have not fitted a Midas TopFinder (TF) to this uptrend to get a projection of when it will end.  A TF only is applicable if the trend is accelerated, which means the first significant price pullback turns around far above S1.  Clearly, we don't have that here, so the TF cannot be applied.  We'll know the uptrend has ended once price breaks and closes below the highest S curve.