Hockey Stick Amazon - All Done

As this bull market powers on, I'm examining the question, "Are the FANG stocks peaking?"  I'm looking at each of these four on several time frames to see if a TopFinder can be fit to the chart, giving us an indication of whether it's near the end of this up move.  When I looked at Amazon (AMZN) on the very long term time frame - quarterly bars chart - from its IPO in 1997, I saw this most amazing chart...

 

  This is a hockey stick chart!  It goes from the 2008 low of 34.68 up to this quarter's high (so far) of 1083.31, a 3,124 % increase, a compound growth rate of 26% per year.  When you switch this chart to a semilog display, it shows that a straight line fits the move very well, i.e., this truly has been an exponential move.

What's most interesting to me is that the TopFinder fits perfectly to this move (purple curve) and the algorithm says that the move is done (Who's going to quibble over 0.2%?).  This means that the hockey stick up move is now over.  

The usual caveat...

•  The TopFinder is a concurrent indicator, not a predictive one.  It tells you what is happening now.  It's telling us that this hockey stick move has ended, but it does NOT tell us what comes next - only that it will be different.  So, it's telling you that now is a good time to close out your long position, but it's not necessarily the right place to go short.